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So I assume I'm not the only one who often checks GreenLight official page (https://www.facebook.com/GLCollectibles/) on Facebook for the newest releases. As of November 14, 2019, the GL official page has been liked by 78,660 people and followed by 80,198. This is substantially larger in comparison with the competitions, for example M2 Machines (35,919; 36,482), Johnny Lightning (17,958; 18,527), Auto World (17,024; 17,552) and Racing Champions (4,052; 4,195). It is safe to say the GL marketing team has done a decent job in the PR department.
What interests me the most whenever I check their FB page is the number of "likes" toward public posts or photos uploaded by the GL team. I find this a barometer of how the upcoming releases, toolings, and series are received by the diecast community. Needless to say, the higher the number of likes, the bigger the anticipation toward the particular release.
As for 1/64 models, the GreenLight PR team always posts three kinds of photos of each release before the items are actually released. This is 1. artwork 2. deco sample 3. packaging image in that order. Artwork images are often released more than six months prior to the release. Deco samples are released at approx. six months prior to the release. Whenever they post packaging images, it means the item will be released in less than a month or two.
Of all three kinds of posts, #1 and #2 hype up the diecast fans the most, and they are the most liked posts. In this post, I'd like to compare the number of likes toward the deco sample posts and see which items get the highest number of likes. This is to see which item is the most anticipated by the diecast community (at the very least the community on Facebook). Let's see if there's any trend between the items that get the most anticipation.
First off, I'm comparing the latest deco samples of Vintage Ad Cars series 2.
The result became like this.
53 Studebaker Commander: 38 likes
67 Mercury Cougar: 44 likes
68 Ford Club Wagon: 71 likes
70 Chevy Monte Carlo: 33 likes
77 Jeep CJ-5 Golden Eagle: 53 likes
86 Chevy Caprice Brougham: 200 likes (including mine!)
Comparing the likes each one of the cars of Vintage Ad Cars series 2, we can make certain observations.
First, the number of likes, on average, hovers around 30~70.
Second, if the number of likes is reaching more than 100, the item can be considered highly anticipated.
Based on these observations, we can guess the 86 Caprice will definitely become difficult to get one, with many people stocking multiple items just because.
I wish I could make an Excel sheet of all items and the corresponding number of likes, but due to my time limitations, I could only provide a few samples.
Here are the recent items that received more than 100 likes:
There were also Ford SUV police interceptor and the 90s Ford Monster truck which received 100~130 likes. But I couldn't post the screenshots because of the upload limit.
As for Fall Guy truck, as shown above, reaching a whopping 451 likes.
The box GM trucks seems to be massively popular, with 91 K-5 Blazer and 83 Sierra getting more than 300 and 200 likes respectively.
The roster also includes 90s Ford truck, Starsky & Hutch Gran Torino, and another Caprice.
Except for Gran Torino and Ford SUV, all the cars that get >100 likes are from the 80s and 90s.
Judging from the number of likes alone, at the very least, I find the 80s and 90s American cars to be the next market GreenLight should focus on.
In comparison with the 50s to 70s, these two decades have been often neglected by the diecast companies. I have no idea what is the reason, but I assume partly because the early 80s is a part of the so-called "malaise era" and the car design since then had been boxy and considered less beautiful.
Me personally, I find the idea that "boxy = ugly" is far from the truth, and as shown above, many many diecast collectors sought for the cars of this era.
Anyhow, thanks for reading the wall of text and the product of boredom. Feel free to leave any feedback and have a great day
(Some comments on technical issues: I only compared the "timeline photos". No "cover photos" or other kinds. I also excluded Hobby Exclusive cars because they are not coming in a package of six, and people's attention & likes concentrate on one item. This was done to make the comparison even.)
What interests me the most whenever I check their FB page is the number of "likes" toward public posts or photos uploaded by the GL team. I find this a barometer of how the upcoming releases, toolings, and series are received by the diecast community. Needless to say, the higher the number of likes, the bigger the anticipation toward the particular release.
As for 1/64 models, the GreenLight PR team always posts three kinds of photos of each release before the items are actually released. This is 1. artwork 2. deco sample 3. packaging image in that order. Artwork images are often released more than six months prior to the release. Deco samples are released at approx. six months prior to the release. Whenever they post packaging images, it means the item will be released in less than a month or two.
Of all three kinds of posts, #1 and #2 hype up the diecast fans the most, and they are the most liked posts. In this post, I'd like to compare the number of likes toward the deco sample posts and see which items get the highest number of likes. This is to see which item is the most anticipated by the diecast community (at the very least the community on Facebook). Let's see if there's any trend between the items that get the most anticipation.
First off, I'm comparing the latest deco samples of Vintage Ad Cars series 2.
The result became like this.
53 Studebaker Commander: 38 likes
67 Mercury Cougar: 44 likes
68 Ford Club Wagon: 71 likes
70 Chevy Monte Carlo: 33 likes
77 Jeep CJ-5 Golden Eagle: 53 likes
86 Chevy Caprice Brougham: 200 likes (including mine!)
Comparing the likes each one of the cars of Vintage Ad Cars series 2, we can make certain observations.
First, the number of likes, on average, hovers around 30~70.
Second, if the number of likes is reaching more than 100, the item can be considered highly anticipated.
Based on these observations, we can guess the 86 Caprice will definitely become difficult to get one, with many people stocking multiple items just because.
I wish I could make an Excel sheet of all items and the corresponding number of likes, but due to my time limitations, I could only provide a few samples.
Here are the recent items that received more than 100 likes:
There were also Ford SUV police interceptor and the 90s Ford Monster truck which received 100~130 likes. But I couldn't post the screenshots because of the upload limit.
As for Fall Guy truck, as shown above, reaching a whopping 451 likes.
The box GM trucks seems to be massively popular, with 91 K-5 Blazer and 83 Sierra getting more than 300 and 200 likes respectively.
The roster also includes 90s Ford truck, Starsky & Hutch Gran Torino, and another Caprice.
Except for Gran Torino and Ford SUV, all the cars that get >100 likes are from the 80s and 90s.
Judging from the number of likes alone, at the very least, I find the 80s and 90s American cars to be the next market GreenLight should focus on.
In comparison with the 50s to 70s, these two decades have been often neglected by the diecast companies. I have no idea what is the reason, but I assume partly because the early 80s is a part of the so-called "malaise era" and the car design since then had been boxy and considered less beautiful.
Me personally, I find the idea that "boxy = ugly" is far from the truth, and as shown above, many many diecast collectors sought for the cars of this era.
Anyhow, thanks for reading the wall of text and the product of boredom. Feel free to leave any feedback and have a great day
(Some comments on technical issues: I only compared the "timeline photos". No "cover photos" or other kinds. I also excluded Hobby Exclusive cars because they are not coming in a package of six, and people's attention & likes concentrate on one item. This was done to make the comparison even.)
I am also not very fond of the flame tampo they put on the 76 Caprices. All in all, I kind of ignore them whenever I encounter them in shops, and I assume a lot of other people do.
You can find HW everywhere, even at local toy stores, but Matchbox is more available online. I assume the re-release of 70s Caprice means they sold out pretty well. I am also happy they announced the 90s Caprice police car, but somehow the front and tail lights are missing 
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